What Businesses Need to Know as We Enter Summer Trading
As we move into April and the start of the summer energy trading period, many businesses are asking the same question: are prices finally easing?
The short answer, not really.
Despite the seasonal shift, the energy market continues to behave very differently from historical norms. Here’s what’s driving prices right now and what it means for your business.
A Market Still Driven by Global Events
Traditionally, the transition into warmer months brings some stability. Lower demand, particularly for gas, combined with storage dynamics often leads to softer pricing.
However, this year tells a different story.
Energy markets remain heavily influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Even minor developments, such as political announcements or social media statements, are having immediate and noticeable impacts on pricing.
In short, external global factors are outweighing seasonal fundamentals.
The Myth of “Cheaper Summer Prices”
There’s a long-standing belief that energy is always cheaper in summer. While this may have been true in more stable times, it’s increasingly unreliable in today’s market.
Businesses that delay decisions based on this assumption are finding themselves exposed to unexpected price volatility.
The reality is:
Seasonal trends are no longer a dependable strategy
Waiting for summer price drops can be a risky gamble
Market timing has become significantly more complex
Understanding the Forward Curve: Opportunities in Long-Term Planning
One of the most important indicators in the current market is the forward pricing curve, and right now, it’s showing strong backwardation.
This means future prices are significantly lower than near-term contracts.
Current Market Snapshot:
Winter 2026 Gas: ~127p per therm
Winter 2029 Gas: ~72p per therm
Winter 2026 Power: ~100.89 per unit
Winter 2029 Power: ~70 per unit
This creates a substantial pricing gap, particularly in gas, where the difference can be as much as 50–60p per therm.
What This Means:
Longer-term contracts may offer better value
Prices further out are still relatively attractive
However, markets are gradually rising across the curve as uncertainty continues
The longer geopolitical tensions persist, the more upward pressure we’re likely to see, even on future pricing.
A Strategic Approach Matters More Than Ever
In this environment, reactive decision-making can be costly. Businesses that have taken a long-term, strategic approach, particularly those who secured contracts within their budget thresholds, are currently in a much stronger position.
The key principle remains simple:
If your energy costs meet your budget, what are you waiting for?
Trying to “beat the market” or time the perfect moment introduces unnecessary risk, especially in volatile conditions.
A Word of Caution: The Energy Brokerage Landscape
Another important factor for businesses to be aware of is the nature of the energy brokerage market itself.
Many brokers operate in highly target-driven environments. Their priority is often to secure contracts, regardless of whether market conditions are favourable for the client.
This can lead to:
Persistent calls and emails
Pressure to sign quickly
Claims that “now is the best time”
While that may sometimes be true, it’s not always aligned with the best outcome for your business.
Final Thoughts
The energy market remains complex, volatile, and heavily influenced by global events. Old assumptions, like cheaper summer pricing, no longer hold the same weight.
For businesses, the focus should be on:
Making informed, strategic decisions
Avoiding reactive, pressure-driven commitments
Seeking independent advice where needed
Above all, remember: the right decision isn’t always to act immediately, sometimes it’s to wait, review, and plan carefully.
