Energy uncertainty: What Manufacturers are actually experiencing on the ground
Over the past few months, the energy market has started to feel uncertain again.
We ran a series of webinars this week with manufacturers, and the conversation was very familiar. The same questions kept coming up:
“Should we be doing something now?”
“Have we missed the right time?”
“Where are prices actually heading?”
And the honest answer is, it’s not straightforward.
There’s a lot of noise in the market again, and sales-led brokers pushing ‘now is a great time to sign’ messaging. But when you strip it back, what matters is what businesses are actually seeing and dealing with day to day.
On the back of our webinars, this is what we’re hearing and what you need to pay attention to.
1. Costs are moving again and timing is catching people out
In the short term, energy prices have increased sharply, particularly in gas markets.
For businesses with contracts approaching renewal, this is having a direct impact. Decisions that didn’t feel urgent even a few weeks ago are now costing money.
We’re not only seeing rising costs but greater exposure to the importance of when decisions are made. Leaving things late is becoming a more expensive strategy.
2. The old rules no longer apply
A common assumption still exists in the market: “Energy is cheaper in the summer”
In reality, that hasn’t held true for some time. Businesses relying on historic patterns or gut feel are increasingly getting caught out. The market isn’t behaving in a predictable, seasonal way and hasn’t for a while.
As a result, we’re seeing a shift away from trying to “time the market” towards taking a more structured view on procurement.
3. A growing focus on cost certainty over market timing
One of the most consistent themes we’re seeing is a change in mindset. Rather than asking “Can we beat the market?” More businesses are asking “Is this a cost we can live with and plan around?”
For manufacturers, where energy is a significant operational cost, this shift is critical.
4. Flexible contracts aren’t always delivering what’s expected
Flexible contracts are often positioned as a way to manage risk and take advantage of market movement.
In reality, the outcomes are often very different.
What we’re seeing:
Positions not being taken at the right time
No clear or agreed strategy
Responsibility sitting across multiple stakeholders, with no clear ownership
In a number of recent cases we’ve reviewed, businesses would have been in a better position had they fixed at the outset.
The issue isn’t the contract type itself, it’s that without a clear plan and active management, flexibility can increase exposure rather than reduce it.
5. A new cost pressure many businesses didn’t anticipate
Alongside wholesale price movement, there’s another factor now feeding into costs:
Significant increases in electricity network charges (TNUoS).
For many manufacturers, this is now showing up as:
Sharp increases in standing charges
Costs that feel disconnected from actual usage
What’s striking is how few businesses were aware of the scale of this change before it hit and how significant the impact now is.
In some cases, these increases are material and ongoing, not one-off adjustments.
6. Visibility remains a challenge
Energy is still complex and that complexity continues to create problems.
We regularly see:
Costs buried within standing charges
Contracts that are difficult to compare
Limited clarity on what’s fixed, what’s pass-through, and what’s exposed
That lack of visibility makes it difficult to make confident decisions, particularly in a market that’s moving again.
7. The gap between “market options” and what businesses actually see
There are opportunities in the market, different structures, different suppliers, and mechanisms that can reduce cost.
But many businesses aren’t seeing them.
In practice:
Options are often limited to a small group of suppliers
Not all routes to market are being explored
And as a result, businesses don’t always get a full view of what’s available
That gap can quietly cost money over time.
How Manufacturers should navigate the current market
Manufacturers are operating in an environment where:
Costs are moving again
Policy is adding additional pressure
Decision timing is critical
And visibility is often limited.
The businesses navigating this effectively are those that:
Focus on manageable, known costs
Take a structured approach to decision-making
And ensure they have clear, unbiased visibility of their options
What this looks like in practice
Energy uncertainty isn’t new but it's easy to get caught out.
The challenge today isn’t just understanding the market. It’s knowing all of the options and making the right decisions, at the right time.
We can help with that. Get in touch.